Role of farm fires in Delhi’s pol­lu­tion still low, for now

Punjab: Even as Delhi con­tin­ues to choke under a “very poor” air qual­ity index for the third straight day, experts said that the city has so far been spared the usual haze of farm smoke that typ­ic­ally engulfs it at this time of year.

The con­tri­bu­tion of stubble burn­ing in neigh­bour­ing Pun­jab and Hary­ana has remained neg­li­gible this sea­son – below 1% on most days, and peak­ing at just 2.6% so far, accord­ing to data from the Centre’s Decision Sup­port Sys­tem (DSS).

The con­tri­bu­tion of stubble burn­ing in neigh­bour­ing Pun­jab and Hary­ana has remained neg­li­gible this sea­son – below 1% on most days, and peak­ing at just 2.6% so far, accord­ing to data from the Centre’s Decision Sup­port Sys­tem (DSS).

The peak share so far, at 2.6%, was recor­ded on Octo­ber 17, DSS data shows, mean­ing Delhi’s spike in pol­lu­tion right now is largely due to both local and cross-bound­ary emis­sions – par­tic­u­larly indus­tries and vehicles.

Typ­ic­ally, the impact of farm fires begins to rise sharply in the last week of Octo­ber and peaks in early Novem­ber. This year, however, fore­casts sug­gest that the sea­sonal surge will be delayed until at least Octo­ber 28, as winds con­tinue to blow largely from the east rather than the north­w­est, which nor­mally car­ries smoke from Pun­jab and Hary­ana into Delhi.

Typ­ic­ally, the impact of farm fires begins to rise sharply in the last week of Octo­ber and peaks in early Novem­ber. This year, however, fore­casts sug­gest that the sea­sonal surge will be delayed until at least Octo­ber 28, as winds con­tinue to blow largely from the east rather than the north­w­est, which nor­mally car­ries smoke from Pun­jab and Hary­ana into Delhi.

Experts said that a com­bin­a­tion of factors – par­tic­u­larly the floods in Pun­jab earlier this year – dis­rup­ted the paddy har­vest cycle and slowed the onset of stubble burn­ing. “The floods may have impacted the har­vest­ing pat­tern, which could lead to a delayed spike in farm fire counts. Nor­mally, the peak is seen in the start of Novem­ber, but so far the impact has been neg­li­gible,” said Sunil Dahiya, founder and lead ana­lyst at the think-tank Envirocata­lysts.

Experts said that a com­bin­a­tion of factors – par­tic­u­larly the floods in Pun­jab earlier this year – dis­rup­ted the paddy har­vest cycle and slowed the onset of stubble burn­ing. “The floods may have impacted the har­vest­ing pat­tern, which could lead to a delayed spike in farm fire counts. Nor­mally, the peak is seen in the start of Novem­ber, but so far the impact has been neg­li­gible,” said Sunil Dahiya, founder and lead ana­lyst at the think-tank Envirocata­lysts.

DSS data this week showed stubble smoke con­trib­ut­ing just 1.62% to Delhi’s PM2.5 con­cen­tra­tion on Wed­nes­day, 1% on Tues­day, and 0.83% on Monday. The con­trast with last year is strik­ing: by Octo­ber 22, 2024, the share of stubble smoke had already reached 8% and climbed to 27% by the end of the month.